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Shayne Coplan made a risky bet when he built Polymarket in 2020. He created the platform in three months and didn’t seek regulatory approval as the law required. In 2021, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched an investigation. Coplan paid a penalty and could not have customers in the U.S. With the second Trump administration came a new appreciation for prediction markets. In the summer of 2025, Polymarket bought a fully licensed, legally compliant trading platform, paving the way for
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When COVID hit, Shayne Coplan found himself looking for simple answers to complex questions. He says that inspired him to create Polymarket, an online prediction market and betting platform “Prediction markets can take all these disparate opinions that people are pontificating about or that they have really good reason to believe, and distill it down into one probability,” says Coplan. “Ultimately, it's going to get you something that's better than whatever you're seeing on the internet, where i
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