The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

China on Monday said it was on the right side of history in its gruelling trade war with the United States. Recall that the US President Donald Trump, since returning to the presidency in January, has imposed 10 per cent tariffs on most US trading partners and a separate 145 per cent levy on many products from China.