The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

Gold’s record-setting rally is making ever-larger waves in China by stoking retail demand, fanning unprecedented trading volumes on the Shanghai exchange and drawing warnings from the authorities.

Donald Trump has repeatedly urged Xi Jinping to call him for discussions about a potential trade deal. But any off-ramp to the economic tensions will likely run through Vice Premier He Lifeng, who is Xi's Sino-American trade tsar.