The Las Vegas Raiders’ win over Jacksonville is the most substantial swing we have seen for the No. 1 pick since The Athletic began tracking the race in Week 14. Before kicking off the late window of Sunday’s games, Las Vegas had a 35 percent chance at the No. 1 pick. It now has a 1 percent chance following its win.

Entering Week 16, the Raiders were projected to hold the No. 2 overall selection, which was considered to be used to pick up one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2025 NFL draft. But after Sunday, the chances of Las Vegas landing one are slim.